Child Births Below Replacement
A look at the potential impacts
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ApexMortals is dedicated to fostering a healthier and more productive human population that can contribute to an enhanced quality of life for all individuals. We maintain a neutral stance on the decision to have or not have children. However, it is of utmost importance to carefully contemplate the potential ramifications stemming from the decline in birth rates, analyzing these implications from both social and economic perspectives.

U.S. population projection


Throughout history, human beings have thrived as social creatures, placing value on community and striving for the success and fulfillment of individuals within that community. This inherent sense of responsibility and curiosity has been passed down to subsequent generations. Which in turn leads to the formation of families and the cultivation of joy and accountability in every human being.

As time has gone on, this has spread from local communities, to municipalities, to continental states, and to global values. For the longest time, we have always looked out for each other and allowed people to "stand on the shoulders of giants" to better themselves. This has only been possible because there have always been new generations to carry on this mantle of responsibility and discovery. This means that women and men have had to start families and foster a sense of responsibility and joy that every human needs.

From 2014 to 2019, the number of births and the GFR showed average annual declines of 1% and 2%, respectively (2). Age-specific birth rates declined from 2020 to 2021 for females aged 15–24 and rose for women aged 25–44, compared with declines in rates for all females aged 15–44 from 2019 to 2020.(CDC

However, since the early 1950s, this has taken a step back as births have declined. We are now starting to see women in their forties who do not have children. To be fair, some of these women genuinely do not want children because they have a bigger calling in life that speaks louder to them. However, for many, they simply have not had children yet, but they want one or two or more. Now, they will not be able to have any. This is leading to a childless generation, which in turn will have many mental and economic issues that we will have to deal with.

From a social and community perspective, children are an important part of society. We have schools for children, playgrounds for children, theme parks for children, and adults, but mostly for children. There are many factors of life that are created and maintained for children. So, what is the most likely outcome socially and economically if birth rates continue to decrease? Here are a couple of things from a purely numerical perspective:

  • School closures
  • job losses
  • increased mental issues / loneliness 

world birth projections



These are just a few, but to me, they seem like the most dire. Let's pick these issues apart just a little.

  • The inevitability of school closures becomes apparent when considering the declining student population. It becomes increasingly impractical to sustain multiple schools with dwindling enrollments, resulting in the inefficient allocation of resources and time. As schools shut down, students will inevitably face longer commutes, placing additional strain on families and communities. Moreover, the potential consequence of this trend is the degradation of educational quality, further exacerbating the challenges faced by future generations.

  • The closure of schools directly impacts job opportunities, particularly for teachers who may face reduced demand. However, the ramifications extend beyond the teaching profession. Consider the local daycare centers, toy stores, and even baby formula manufacturers. Without the need for these services due to declining birth rates, the chain reaction of job loss becomes apparent. If left unaddressed, this ripple effect can spiral downward, affecting various sectors. In our capitalistic society, where the pursuit of efficiency and prosperity is valued, resources naturally shift towards more promising opportunities that align with evolving demands, thereby impacting the job landscape.

  • The topic of increased mental health issues is delicate, but it is reasonable to consider that as social beings, humans may experience challenges when there are fewer opportunities for social interaction. While introverts may find solace in solitude, even they appreciate occasional socializing. It is difficult to fathom the potential impact on extroverts who thrive on regular social connections. While some argue that video games and video chat could mitigate this issue, it is important to recognize that not everyone embraces these forms of communication. Moreover, building new friendships still necessitates reaching out, which can vary in ease and difficulty from person to person.


world death projections

This example serves as a mere glimpse into the potential consequences of declining birth rates. It is crucial for individuals to reflect upon these proposals and envision the impact on their local communities as the number of children continues to diminish. Engage in thoughtful contemplation, allowing your mind to embark on mental experiments that delve into the possible future scenarios.

 Consider the intricate dynamics, shifting demographics, and evolving social fabric that would emerge if these trends persist. Ponder how playgrounds would echo with laughter less frequently, how classrooms would become quieter, and how the familiar sights of children playing in parks would gradually fade away. Imagine the long-term implications on community spirit, intergenerational connections, and the collective sense of responsibility. Delve deep into these reflections to develop a comprehensive understanding of the potential trajectory of a world shaped by these ongoing trends.


global birth rates


While I refrain from imposing my views on others, I do offer my opinions based on the data. Therefore, I encourage individuals to earnestly assess their future and honestly confront themselves regarding the outcomes they desire and can embrace. Regret is a common human experience, and its presence or absence often hinges on individuals who genuinely comprehend themselves and take proactive measures, disregarding external commentary from those who do not live their lives.

Consensus is only valid when the opinions of the majority concurs, because the results are recreatable over and over, through time.
-human


Information was gathered from these sources and I encourage you to conduct your own research on this topic:
  1. Declining birth rate in Developed Countries: A radical policy re-think is required(NCBI)
  2. As Births Diminish and Deaths Increase, Natural Decrease becomes More Widespread in Rural Amercica(NCBI)
  3. World Birth Rate 1950-2023(MacroTrends)
  4. World Death Rate 1950-2023(MacroTrends)
  5. Births in the United States, 2021(CDC)
  6. Do We Need More Or Less Children? | Economics Explanied(YouTube)
  7. Fertility Rate, total(births per woman)(world bank)
Maintaining good health and wellness can have its ups and downs. The downs can be offset by incorporating proper planning to support overall wellbeing.

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